MayDay Summer

Just a few observations from the past weekend's series in San Francisco:

1. Why doesn’t anyone pitch to Barry Bonds? The math is so completely in favor of not walking Bonds that I can't believe it needs to be spelled out. Since 2001, when Bonds’ numbers graduated from great to superhuman, he’s hit .347, reached base at a .545 clip, and homered about once every eight times someone has chosen to pitch to him. These are staggering stats ( forget the homers for a minute - are there more than a handful of players who have hit .347 over any 3+-year period?). But do they justify an automatic intentional walk? Of course not. When a manager chooses to walk Bonds he effectively doubles Barry’s OBP to 1.000, and passes up the essentially two-to-one odds of getting Bonds out to avoid the one-in-eight chance that he’ll hit a homer.

This makes just a little more sense than folding with a straight flush.

So why do managers rush to walk him? A combination of reasons, I think. First, they haven’t bothered to do (or even to think about) the simple math I’ve laid out above. (You can bet the stat-minded Sox have done it, and that’s why not one of their pitchers issued Bonds a pass this weekend.) Instead they make decisions based on memory, and in memory the dramatic but less-frequent (Bonds’ homers) stand out more than the mundane but more-frequent (Bonds making outs). Bonds’ recent homer off a 101-MPH Gagne fastball, for example, will figure all too heavily in many managers’ minds the next time they have to pitch to Bonds late in a close game.

Second, managers today seem to have absolutely no confidence in their pitchers’ ability to keep the ball out of Barry’s happy zone - and pitchers continue to justify that lack of confidence. What would it take, really, to keep Barry from hitting a homer? Changing speeds a tad? Keeping the ball on the corners? Mixing in some breaking stuff? Jamming him? For some reason you never see any of this when Bonds comes to the plate. Instead, you see either an intentional walk, or as close as you can get to an intentional homer – that is, the pitcher challenging Bonds with his best stuff, coming right down Broadway.

I’m convinced that Bonds has become bigger in pitchers’ and managers’ minds than he is in real life. And he’s big enough in real life, thanks.

2. Why doesn’t everyone hit to Barry Bonds? Man, if I were managing a team about to play San Francisco, I’d have everyone – everyone – practice hitting to left field. Barry can’t go back any more, doesn’t move very well to the foul line, has about one decent throw per game in him, and has apparently paid his shortstop to catch anything more than ten steps in front of him. Opposing players should be fined for hitting anywhere to the right of the shortstop. I was never that big a believer in the legend of Barry the Fielder (while lots of guys should score from second on a line single to short left, Sid Bream shouldn't), but at this point in his career he's a DH.

3. No sense complaining, Sox fans, about the play at third that “lost” yesterday’s game. While Boston may or may not have been screwed by the call – I'm not sure the runner was as obviously out as the local media would have us believe – the Yankees were much more mightily rooked on the called third strike against Matsui that ended their game. Gagne earned his 81st consecutive save with a ball that split the right-hand hitter’s batter’s box.

Oh, and don't look now, but the Devil Rays are in third place. If I were running the Orioles I'd shoot myself just now.